C401T Introduction to Operational Art and Design Strategy 9 soe, — Tactics Operational Art and Design EFTA00147604

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Can design/systems thinking help solve the FBI’s current “wicked” problems? www.drawtoast.com EFTA00147605

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Operational Art and Design Strategy 9 sO f. Tactics Operational Art and Design Leader/Commander Using Produces * Systems Perspective * Strategy * Operational Design * Operational * Linear Planning Processes Plans * Orders EFTA00147606

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Systems Perspective Afghanistan Stability / COIN Dynamics ~~ “=| = } Here are some examples of systems analysis products used to understand the operational environment. Notice that the systems analysis labeled “Afghanistan Stability/COIN Dynamics” was meant to be a design drawing for the internal use of the design team/staff. Design drawings, which could be on sketch paper, what boards, or on slides will only make sense to those that created it to help in understanding. It is not meant to serve as a presentation drawing (labeled Key Actors Relationships) that provides a level of simplicity and ease of understanding to someone who did not participate in the creation of the product. EFTA00147607

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History of Operational Design (1 of 2) 1970’s — “Intellectual Renaissance” in military theory and planning requiring officers to “visualize” problems before the initiation of planning 1990's — End of the “Cold War” and a dawn of new/more complex problems facing the military Mid-2000’s: Systemic Concept for Operational Design Army adopts concepts of design in FM 3-0 Operations 2006: DoD TRADOC Pamphlet 525-5-500 codifies Commander & Appreciation and Campaign Design Command & General Staff College / School of Advanced Military Studies OIF Campaign: Gen. Mattis stressed planners needed to “design a broad approach to achieving objectives and accomplishing the mission; and to determine if, when, and how to change that approach when circumstances change.” 5 EFTA00147608

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History of Operational Design (2 of 2) * Israeli Defense Forces 1990's: Operational Theory Research Institute (ORTI) — 2006: Shimon Navey (Director of ORT!) — Highly critical of the Israeli approach in the Yorn Kippur War of 1973 + US Special Operational Command ~ Center for Special Operations Campaign Plan 7500 Interagency Approach — Horizon of the CT Challenge to the United States Government — “Range Rider” — “Global Forecasting" EFTA00147609

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Operational Art and Design Operational Art —Operational art is the application of intuition and creative imagination by commanders (leaders) and staffs. Supported by their skill, knowledge, experience, creativity, and judgment, commanders (leaders) seek to understand the OE, visualize and describe the desired end state, and employ assigned resources to achieve objectives. seso:s Operational Design — Operational design is the conception and construction of the framework that underpins a campaign or operation and its subsequent execution. ses. Understanding EFTA00147610

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Operational Design and JPP * Operational Design provides the conceptual basis for structuring campaigns and operations. * JPP provides a proven process to organize the work of the commander, staff, subordinate commanders, and other partners to develop plans... * Operational Design and JPP are complementary elements of the overall planning process. EFTA00147611

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Operational Design Framework Four Major Components: 1. Understand Strategic Guidance 2.Understand the Operational Environment 3. Define the Problem(s) 4. Operational Approach JP 5-0, Fig. 1V-3 EFTA00147612

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Design Methodology Methodology includes: . Understand strategic direction and guidance Identify Problem oo" . Understand the strategic environment (policies, diplomacy, politics) . Understand the operational environment (Theory of the Corvent System} (Theory of the Problem) {Theory ofthe Desired System) . Define the problem : . Identify assumptions needed to Where We Are Operational Where do we continue planning (both strategic and ! Design ' want to go? operational) - : i — Elements of . Develop nptions (the operational * Achieving a c Ope Design “Ss s! approach) understanding of the * Military end state . Identify decisions, decision points situation at Acton) . (external to the organization) * Continuous and Supporting recursive refinement departments’ and . Refine the operational approach(es) of situational : agencies’ objectives . Develop planning guidance understanding Operational Approach 10 EFTA00147613

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Elements of Operational Design Where We Are *Center of Gravity* Where do we want to go? *Termination * Military End State Identify Problem *Center of Gravity* Operational Approach * Objectives * Effects «Center of Gravity* * Decisive Points *LOO/LOE Elements of Operational Design * Direct/Indirect Approach © Tesmination * Anticipation © Miltary end state * Operational Reach *Culmination * Arranging Operations * Forces and Functions ‘© Lines of operation and ines of effort 11 EFTA00147614

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Strategic Guidance Principles End State, Objectives, Effects, Tasks Level End state describes the set of conditions to meet conflict i Objectives prescnbe tnendly goals. Effects desenibe the conditions related to the objectves. @ Desired effects describe conditions needed to achieve objectives. conditons that will impede achievement of objectives. Tasks describe friendly actions to create desired effects or preclude undesired effects. Mission describes the I essential task or task(s) and purpose. After Termination there is end state, objectives, effects and tasks. These are difficult topics so do not rush through it. Note: Tasks are not a separate element (Why? | don’t know.) Notice the nesting of the levels from national strategic to tactical in the box on the left. Note: our discussion is focused on the theater strategic and operational levels where joint forces operate, not the national strategic. Joint doctrine’s “elements of operational design reside” at these two levels. Effects and tasks are not used at the national strategic level and effects are not used at the tactical level. However, the Army at the tactical level could use the term ‘conditions’ in lieu of effects. The box on the right defines the elements and their hierarchy. Notice that the end state is a set of conditions and should be described as conditions, that meet the termination criteria. Remember the termination criteria is approved and comes down from the national strategic level. Note: Some think that the end state should come first and that the termination criteria should be based on the end state conditions. This thinking is reasonable and true at the national strategic level, but represents misunderstanding of the operational level of war. Strategic guidance given to the joint force commander includes the strategic end state, objectives and termination criteria, from that the staff determines what conditions (the military end state) meets the termination criteria and the objectives/goals that would create those conditions. Know that an effect is a physical and/or behavioral state of a system that results from an action, a set of actions, or another effect. Therefore the effect is a description of how a system should behave when the objective is achieved. The behavior is observable and measurable and is used as a metric to determine if the objective had been met. There are four primary considerations for writing a desired effect statement. (a) Each desired effect should link directly to one or more objectives (b) The effect should be measurable (c) The statement should not specify ways and means for accomplishment (d) The effect should be distinguishable from the objective it supports as a condition for success, not as another objective or a task. The following slides will discuss each element individually and include examples. 12 EFTA00147615

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Understand the Operational Environment (1 of 3) Strategic guidance Nature of the conflict Relevant history Physical and information factors of the air, land, maritime, and space domains and the information environment Analysis (opposing, neutral, friendly) ° PMESH Tools/modets to * PESTL tanah * ASCOPE Description of the current operational environment Systems perspective of the operational environment Impacts of physical and information factors on the operational environment Friendly/enemy COGs Description of the desired operational environment * Military end state * Termination criteria Description of opposing end states 13 EFTA00147616

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Operational Environment Analytic Methods * DIME: PMESII-PT: * ASCOPE: PESTL: — Diplomacy — Political — Areas — Information — Military — Political — Structures — Economic — Military — Economic — Capabilities — Economy — Social — Social — Organizations — Technologic — Information — People — Legal — Infrastructure — Events — Physical Environment — Time 14 EFTA00147617

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Holistic View of the Operational Environment Figure IV-5. Holistic View of the Operational Environment 15 EFTA00147618

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Understand the Operational Environment (2 of 3) NARCOTICS NETWORK ANALYSIS - 5 16 EFTA00147619

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Understand the Operational Environment (3 of 3) — link ---= weak link === strong link ——— Enemy Desired System 17 EFTA00147620

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Define the Problem (1 of 2) Key Inputs Description of the current operational environment * Systems perspective of the operational environment Impacts of physical and information factors on the Defining operational environment the Friendly/enemy COGs Problem Description of the desired operational environment * Military end state * Termination criteria Description of opposing end states Key Outputs Problem statement that identifies problem to be solved Tension between current conditions and desired end state Elements within the operational environment that must change to achieve desired end state Opportunities and threats to achieving end states Limitations Assumptions 20 EFTA00147623

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Defining the Problem (2 of 2) Current System ss Friendly Desired System tink — Enemy Desired System 21 EFTA00147624

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Problem Statements Two forms: Interrogative Declarative Generally requires a “deeper” level of analysis Must encompass the true root of the organization’s challenge to drive the current state to the desired state Can use “METT-TC” {Mission, Enemy (Threat), Terrain, Troops (Personnel), Time, Civilian Considerations (Community)} analysis to assist with focusing the problem statement ” 22 EFTA00147625

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Defining the Problem 23 EFTA00147626

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Tensions in Present System Sample Design Drawing Problem Statement Tendency Potential Problem Statement President Obama: "The United States’ prime interest is to defeat ISIL and to respect Iraqi sovereignty... that will continue to be our policy." Economic Interests in Iraq 24 EFTA00147627

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Sample Design Drawing — Problem Statement Tensions in Present System -UK at war with Germany and Turkey -British EEF and Turkish Fourth Tendency Army engaged in conventional battle -Turkish occupation of Arab land . -Tribal Feuds among Arab tribes Potential -Differing views of warfare Problem Statement How does Lawrence bring together a disparate group of Arab tribes to form an effective fighting force which can support the EEF’s conventional campaign against the Turks occupying the Arab lands? or Lawrence needed to bring together a disparate group of Arab tribes to form an effective fighting force which can support the EEF’s conventional campaign against the Turks occupying the Arab lands. Enemy Desired System -Arabs remain unable to unite for common purpose; remain ineffective fighting force -Arabs unable to help the British war effort -Turks continue occupation of Arab lands Friendly Desired System -Arabs become an effective fighting force -Arubs able to help the British war effort -Turks unable to sustain presence in Arab lands 25 EFTA00147628

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Operational Approach (1 of 2) Key Inputs Problem statement that identifies problem to be solved Tension between current conditions and desired end state Defining the Problem Elements within the operational environment that must change to achieve desired end state Opportunities and threats to achieving end states Limitations Assumptions Key Outputs Description of the operational environment Definition of the problem Commander's operational approach Identify decisions and decision points (DP’s) JFC’s initial planning guidance * Commander’s Initial Intent Refine operational approach 26 EFTA00147629

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Operational Approach (2 of 2) IA” LY Current Desired System System Condition 1 END Condition 1 STATE Condition 2 Condition 2 Objective 1 Condition 3 milestones. intermediate objectives, of Contatti at oN ae other tactors on a LOO or LOE necessary achieves end state to create desired conditions) an rea Condition 3: Pas we 2 The beginning state Condition nD ba hachan taint 4 (A combination of actions, decisive points, (The state of the 27 EFTA00147630

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Understanding the Linkage of an Operational Approach https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WS5qQblHZ5g0, 28 EFTA00147631

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Sample Design Drawing — Operational Approach Problem Statement How does US, partners and “Maderate” Muslim nations form and maintain a MNF for an enduring effort to support Iraq (& Sunni’s) to defeat ISIS, enable broader WoT and restore regional security and stability, while respecting state sovereignty, preventing long term involvement of US ground combat troops, and without increasing Iranian threat_ -Improve stability and security in central region (M/E) The approach will include three broad lines of effort; strengthening Iraq, targeting ISIL and MN cooperation. We will build and maintain a strong multinational force that is able to effectively plan and coordinate effects, and manage risk. Iraqi land forces will be supported by SOF, air and stand-off effects and training/advisory forces. Operations will include a range of conventional and unconventional methods to directly and indirectly target, degrade and defeat ISIL's “Apocalyptic” narrative. We will work to gain the collective support of ‘moderate’ Muslims. All regional operations will be aligned to ensure they are complementary and synergistic with broader WoT effects and outcomes. 29 EFTA00147632

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Sample Design Drawing — Operational Approach Categories of Analysis “+ Conceptual Plan “Aickachions Desired System Algebraical -need to oatcatata factors » : ——— | Guerrilla Warfare Desired Svatem -Arabs become an Biological T TT T T effective fighting force et to wom dows » -Ambs able to help the - Defeat British war effort = Mechanism | -Turks unable to sustain - Support Operaticent! Exhaustien | presence in Arab lands Psychological of populace Mobility ced fir maral support thew Precision Irregular warfure Info Ops Intelligence tactics Operational Approach Narrative Using the algebraically, biological, and psychological categories of analysis, Lawrence envisioned a conceptual plan centered on guerrilla warfare against the Turks. His conceptual plan was built on the four pillars of populace support, precision intelligence, operational mobility, and irregular warfare tactics which optimized the strengths of the Arabs in this harsh environment. The defeat mechanism for this plan was exhaustion of the Turkish forces in Arabia through attacks on the “enemy’s material.” The Arabs would thus be transformed into an effective fighting force able to support the British war effort and ultimately make it unsustainable for the Turks to continue its occupation. 30 30 EFTA00147633

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DIRECT NSS-— National Security Strategy UCP—Unified Command Plan QDR- Quadrennial Defense Review NMS- National Military Strategy QHSR-- Quadrennial Homeland Security Review (Dept of Homeland Security) QDDR-- Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review (Dept of State) EMPLOY GEF-— Guidance for Employment of the Force RPG- Resource Planning Guidance CPG-- Contingency Planning Guidance JSCP-- Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan (Next release: Joint Strategic Campaign Plan TCP-— Theater Campaign Plan TPP-— theater Posture Plan OPLAN- Operations Plan (complete plan with all annexes and TPFDL (Time Phased Force Deployment List)) CONPLAN-™- Contingency Plan (Base plan with select annexes and TPFDL BASEPLAN- Complete Base plan without annexes CDR's Estimate- Commander's Estimate Assess CRA-- Chairman's Risk Assessment CRS- Chairman's Readiness System JSR- Joint Strategic Review AJA- Annual Joint Assessment (Renamed from CRA) Develop CCJO- Chairman's Concept for Joint Operations Military Departments / Defense Organizations USA- U.S. Army USMC-- U.S. Marine Corps USN- U.S. Navy USAF-— U.S. Air Force USCG- U.S. Coast Guard USSOCOM- U.S. Special Operations Command Service Components ARFOR- Army Forces MARFOR-\ Marine Forces NAVFOR-- Navy Forces AFFOR-’ Air Force Forces TSOC-— Theater Special Operations Command Functional Components JFACC-— Joint Force Air Component Commander JFLCC— Joint Force Land Component Commander JFMCC-— Joint Force Maritime Component Commander JTF— Joint Task Force JSOTF-— Joint Special Operations Task Force EFTA00147634

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JMISTF— Joint Military Information Support Task Force JCMOTF- Joint Civil Military Operations Task Force JIATF—Joint Interagency Task Force EFTA00147635